BMI at Age 17 Years and Diabetes Mortality in Midlife: A Nationwide Cohort of 2.3 Million Adolescents

OBJECTIVE The sequelae of increasing childhood obesity are of major concern. We assessed the association of BMI in late adolescence with diabetes mortality in midlife. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS The BMI values of 2,294,139 Israeli adolescents (age 17.4 ± 0.3 years), measured between 1967 and 2010, were grouped by U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention age/sex percentiles and by ordinary BMI values. The outcome, obtained by linkage with official national records, was death attributed to diabetes mellitus (DM) as the underlying cause. Cox proportional hazards models were applied. RESULTS During 42,297,007 person-years of follow-up (median, 18.4 years; range CONCLUSIONS Adolescent BMI, including values within the currently accepted “normal” range, strongly predicts DM mortality up to the seventh decade. The increasing prevalence of childhood and adolescent overweight and obesity points to a substantially increased future adult DM burden.