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Evaluation of Control Strategies for Porcine Reproductive and Respiratory Syndrome (PRRS) in Swine Breeding Herds Using a Discrete Event Agent-Based Model
- Source :
- PLoS ONE, PLoS ONE, Vol 11, Iss 11, p e0166596 (2016)
- Publication Year :
- 2016
- Publisher :
- Public Library of Science, 2016.
-
Abstract
- The objective of this study was to develop a discrete event agent-based stochastic model to explore the likelihood of the occurrence of porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome (PRRS) outbreaks in swine herds with different PRRS control measures in place. The control measures evaluated included vaccination with a modified-live attenuated vaccine and live-virus inoculation of gilts, and both were compared to a baseline scenario where no control measures were in place. A typical North American 1,000-sow farrow-to-wean swine herd was used as a model, with production and disease parameters estimated from the literature and expert opinion. The model constructed herein was not only able to capture individual animal heterogeneity in immunity to and shedding of the PRRS virus, but also the dynamic animal flow and contact structure typical in such herds under field conditions. The model outcomes included maximum number of females infected per simulation, and time at which that happened and the incidence of infected weaned piglets during the first year of challenge-virus introduction. Results showed that the baseline scenario produced a larger percentage of simulations resulting in outbreaks compared to the control scenarios, and interestingly some of the outbreaks occurred over long periods after virus introduction. The live-virus inoculation scenario showed promising results, with fewer simulations resulting in outbreaks than the other scenarios, but the negative impacts of maintaining a PRRS-positive population should be considered. Finally, under the assumptions of the current model, neither of the control strategies prevented the infection from spreading to the piglet population, which highlights the importance of maintaining internal biosecurity practices at the farrowing room level.
- Subjects :
- 0301 basic medicine
Male
Veterinary medicine
Pulmonology
Swine
animal diseases
Biosecurity
lcsh:Medicine
Breeding
Systems Science
Disease Outbreaks
0403 veterinary science
Agent-Based Modeling
Medicine and Health Sciences
Medicine
Public and Occupational Health
lcsh:Science
Mammals
education.field_of_study
Vaccines
Multidisciplinary
Attenuated vaccine
Incidence (epidemiology)
Simulation and Modeling
Agriculture
04 agricultural and veterinary sciences
Vaccination and Immunization
3. Good health
Vaccination
Infectious Diseases
Vertebrates
Physical Sciences
Livestock
Female
Research Article
Computer and Information Sciences
Infectious Disease Control
040301 veterinary sciences
030106 microbiology
Population
Immunology
Porcine Reproductive and Respiratory Syndrome
Research and Analysis Methods
Models, Biological
03 medical and health sciences
Inoculation
Animals
Porcine respiratory and reproductive syndrome virus
education
business.industry
lcsh:R
Organisms
Immunity
Outbreak
Biology and Life Sciences
Amniotes
Respiratory Infections
North America
Herd
lcsh:Q
Preventive Medicine
business
Mathematics
Subjects
Details
- Language :
- English
- ISSN :
- 19326203
- Volume :
- 11
- Issue :
- 11
- Database :
- OpenAIRE
- Journal :
- PLoS ONE
- Accession number :
- edsair.doi.dedup.....21c2dc5a36d3d8ea0098c8b4b736dcfe