Potential Risk of Misjudgment in the Decision-making Process Based on the 2018 Tokyo Guidelines in Older Patients with Acute Cholecystitis

Objective The 2018 Tokyo Guidelines (TG18) were published to facilitate the decision-making processes (DMP), including the diagnosis and operation of acute cholecystitis (AC). However, only a few guidelines consider older adults. This study evaluated the DMP based on the TG18, focusing on older patients with AC. Methods This was a single-armed, single-center retrospective study. The primary outcome measure was the "undiagnosable" AC rate, and the secondary outcome measure was the degree of concordance of "unfit for surgery" decisions. Patients Two hundred and nine patients with AC. Results Sixty (28.7%) of 209 patients with AC were "undiagnosable" on admission based on the TG18 criteria. The numbers and rate of "undiagnosable" AC in patients ≤59, 60-79, and ≥80 years old were 4 (10.0%), 20 (24.4%), and 36 (41.4%), respectively (P0.001). The multiple logistic regression analysis following the univariate analysis revealed that age73 years old was the most significant risk factor for undiagnosable AC (P=0.006, odds ratio [OR]: 3.06, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.38-6.81). Female sex (P=0.033, OR: 2.09, 95% CI: 1.06-4.09) and severe AC (P=0.049, OR: 2.97, 95% CI: 1.01-8.76) were also significant risk factors for undiagnosable AC. The number of cases unfit for surgery based on the Charlson Comorbidity Index and American Society of Anesthesiologists physical status was 90 (43.1%) and 75 (35.9%), respectively. The κ value between these 2 indicators revealed a minimal concordance of 0.33 (95% CI: 0.20-0.47). Conclusion The DMP based on the TG18 potentially harbors a misjudgment risk, especially in older patients with AC (UMIN000047715).