Association between coronary artery bypass graft center volume and year-to-year outcome variability: New York and California statewide analysis

We evaluated whether volume-based, rather than time-based, annual reporting of center outcomes for coronary artery bypass grafting may improve inference of quality, assuming that large center-level year-to-year outcome variability is related to statistical noise.We analyzed 2012 to 2016 data on isolated coronary artery bypass grafting using statewide outcome reports from New York and California. Annual changes in center-level observed-to-expected mortality ratio represented stability of year-to-year outcomes. Cubic spline fit related the annual observed-to-expected ratio change and center volume. Volume above the inflection point of the spline curve indicated centers with low year-to-year change in outcome. We compared observed-to-expected ratio changes between centers below and above the volume threshold and observed-to-expected ratio changes between consecutive annual and biennial measurements.There were 155 centers with median annual volume of 89 (interquartile range, 55-160) for isolated coronary artery bypass grafting. The inflection point of observed-to-expected ratio variability was observed at 111 cases/year. Median year-to-year observed-to-expected ratio change for centers performing less than 111 cases (62 centers) was greater at 0.83 (0.26-1.59) compared with centers performing 111 cases or more (93 centers) at 0.49 (022-0.87) (P .001). By aggregating the outcome over 2 years, centers above the 111-case threshold increased from 93 centers (60%) to 118 centers (76%), but the median observed-to-expected change for all centers was similar between annual aggregates at 0.70 (0.26-1.22) compared with observed-to-expected change between biennial aggregates at 0.54 (0.23-1.02) (P = .095).Center-level, risk-adjusted coronary artery bypass grafting mortality varies significantly from one year to the next. Reporting outcomes by specific case volume may complement annual reports.