Targeted antiviral treatment of hepatitis B virus in culturally and linguistically diverse populations to achieve elimination targets in Australia

The majority of Australia's hepatitis B virus (HBV) burden is borne by culturally and linguistically diverse (CALD) populations, and antiviral treatment is the mainstay of intervention. Using modelling, we estimated the impact of targeted antiviral treatment scale-up and changes in migration on HBV-related mortality and HBV elimination in CALD populations in Australia. We fitted a deterministic mathematical model based on the natural history of HBV and the Australian migration effect in four CALD population groups according to country of birth. We used three antiviral treatment scale-up scenarios: baseline (9.3% coverage); intermediate (coverage of 80% of patients eligible for antiviral therapy by 2030); and optimistic (coverage of 20% of all patients living with HBV by 2022). Our model predicted that if the baseline treatment is followed between 2015 and 2030, the number of chronic HBV cases and HBV-related mortality will increase. Following the optimistic scale-up, the number of new HBV cases could be reduced by 78%, 73%, 74% and 83% in people born in Asia-Pacific, Europe, Africa and the Middle East, and Americas, respectively, between 2015 and 2030. An optimistic treatment scale-up could result in a 19.2%-24.5% reduction in HBV-related mortality and a 15%-25% reduction in HCC-related mortality in CALD populations between 2015 and 2030. In conclusion, our findings highlight that targeted antiviral treatment for CALD populations provides significant health system benefits by reducing HBV-related complications from cirrhosis and HCC. Expanded antiviral treatment programmes focusing on high-prevalence CALD populations may be an effective strategy to reduce HBV-related morbidity and mortality.