Lung‐Specific Risk Factors Associated With Incident Hip Fracture in Current and Former Smokers

Hip fractures are associated with significant morbidity and mortality in smokers with lung disease, but whether lung-specific factors are associated with fracture risk is unknown. Our goal was to determine whether lung-specific factors associate with incident hip fracture and improve risk discrimination of traditional fracture risk models in smokers. The analysis consisted of a convenience sample of 9187 current and former smokers (58,477 participant follow-up years) participating in the Genetic Epidemiology of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) longitudinal observational cohort study. Participants were enrolled between 2008 and 2011 with follow-up data collection through July 2018. Traditional risk factors associated with incident hip fracture (n = 361) included age, female sex, osteoporosis, prevalent spine and hip fracture, rheumatoid arthritis, and diabetes. Lung-specific risk factors included post-bronchodilator percent forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV1 %) predicted (OR, 0.95; 95% CI, 0.92-0.99 for each 10% increase), Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease (GOLD) classification (OR, 1.09; 95% CI, 1.002-1.19 for each higher stage), presence of CT-determined emphysema (OR, 1.34; 95% CI, 1.06-1.69), symptom scores (OR, 1.10; 95% CI, 1.03-1.19 for each higher unit score), 6-min walk distance (OR, 0.92; 95% CI, 0.90-0.95 for each 30-m increase), body mass index, airflow obstruction, dyspnea, and exercise (BODE) index (OR, 1.07; 95% CI, 1.01-1.13 for each higher unit score), total exacerbations (OR, 1.13; 95% CI, 1.10-1.16 per exacerbation), and annual exacerbations (OR, 1.37; 95% CI, 1.21-1.55 per exacerbation). In multivariable modeling, age, black race, osteoporosis, prevalent hip and spine fracture, rheumatoid arthritis, and diabetes were associated with incident hip fracture. The presence of emphysema, 6-min walk distance, and total number of exacerbations added to traditional models improved risk discrimination (integrated discrimination improvement [IDI] values 0.001 [95% CI, 0.0003-0.002], 0.001 [95% CI, 0.0001-0.002], and 0.008 [95% CI, 0.003-0.013], corresponding to relative IDIs of 12.8%, 6.3%, and 34.6%, respectively). These findings suggest that the incorporation of lung-specific risk factors into fracture risk assessment tools may more accurately predict fracture risk in smokers. © 2020 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research.