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The Ongoing COVID-19 Epidemic Curves Indicate Initial Point Spread in China with Log-Normal Distribution of New Cases Per Day with a Predictable Last Date of the Outbreak Version 2: Evaluation of Previous Prediction and Testing the Method for S Korea and the Use of the Method by an Unexperienced Person
- Publication Year :
- 2020
- Publisher :
- Preprints, 2020.
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Abstract
- During an epidemic outbreak it is useful for planners and responsible authorities to be able to plan ahead to estimate when an outbreak of an epidemic is likely to ease and when the last case can be predicted in their area of responsibility. Theoretically this could be done for a point source epidemic using epidemic curve forecasting. The extensive data now coming out of China makes it possible to test if this can be done using MS Excel a standard spreadsheet program available to most offices. The available data is divided up for whole China and the different provinces. This and the high number of cases makes the analysis possible. Data for new confirmed infections for Hubei, Hubei outside Wuhan, China excluding Hubei as well as Zhejiang and Fujian provinces all follow a log-normal distribution that can be used to make a rough estimate for the date of the last new confirmed cases in respective areas. In this continuation work 9 additional days were added for the Chinese data to evaluate the previous predictions. We also tested the feasibility for a non-specialist to make similar predictions using additional data from S Korea now available. The extra data now available from China follows the previous predicted trend supporting the usefulness of this simple technique.
Details
- Language :
- English
- Database :
- OpenAIRE
- Accession number :
- edsair.doi.dedup.....1c3f7fd0a4b9a38f83f7f4ccc6aaab26