Cardiac indicator CK-MB might be a predictive marker for severity and organ failure development of acute pancreatitis

BACKGROUND: The prediction of severe acute pancreatitis (SAP) is the key to providing timely and targeted intensive care for acute pancreatitis (AP). The heart is one of multiple organs involved in the early stage of SAP, but the predictive ability of cardiac dysfunction for SAP remains elusive. We sought to determine if the serum levels of three cardiac indicators (CI) including N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP), cardiac troponin I (cTNI), and creatine kinase myocardial band (CK-MB) at admission could predict the occurrence of SAP and the development of related organ failure (OF). METHODS: A retrospective, single-center cohort study was conducted on the files of patients presenting to the emergency intensive care unit and medical ward of a regional hospital in Shanghai. Patients diagnosed as having AP and who met the 2012 Atlanta guideline were admitted within 48 hours after disease onset. RESULTS: Of the 670 AP patients screened, 238 were enrolled into the study and divided into mild acute pancreatitis (MAP) (n=59), moderate severe acute pancreatitis (MSAP) (n=123), and SAP (n=56) groups. No significant difference was found in baseline age, gender, duration from disease onset to admission, comorbidity, or substance abuse. As the levels of three CIs were significantly higher in the SAP group than in the MAP and MSAP groups, the enrolled patients were regrouped into non-SAP and SAP groups for predictive evaluation. Multivariate analysis and nomogram modelling showed that CK-MB, but not cTNI or NT-proBNP predicted the occurrence of SAP [area under curve (AUC) =0.805, confidence interval (CI): 0.794–0.905]. Specifically, 89 patients with OF (Modified Marshall score ≥2) upon admission were selected and CK-MB was shown to predict (AUC =0.805, CI: 0.794–0.905) persistent OF (n=48, duration of OF >48 hours) compared to transient organ failure (TOF) (n=41, duration of OF