Host resistance, population structure and the long-term persistence of bubonic plague: contributions of a modelling approach in the Malagasy focus

Although bubonic plague is an endemic zoonosis in many countries around the world, the factors responsible for the persistence of this highly virulent disease remain poorly known. Classically, the endemic persistence of plague is suspected to be due to the coexistence of plague resistant and plague susceptible rodents in natural foci, and/or to a metapopulation structure of reservoirs. Here, we test separately the effect of each of these factors on the long-term persistence of plague. We analyse the dynamics and equilibria of a model of plague propagation, consistent with plague ecology in Madagascar, a major focus where this disease is endemic since the 1920s in central highlands. By combining deterministic and stochastic analyses of this model, and including sensitivity analyses, we show that (i) endemicity is favoured by intermediate host population sizes, (ii) in large host populations, the presence of resistant rats is sufficient to explain long-term persistence of plague, and (iii) the metapopulation structure of susceptible host populations alone can also account for plague endemicity, thanks to both subdivision and the subsequent reduction in the size of subpopulations, and extinction-recolonization dynamics of the disease. In the light of these results, we suggest scenarios to explain the localized presence of plague in Madagascar.
Author Summary Bubonic plague, known to have marked human history by three deadly pandemics, is an infectious disease which mainly circulates in wild rodent populations and is transmitted by fleas. Although this disease can be quickly lethal to its host, it has persisted on long-term in many rodent populations around the world. The reasons for this persistence remain poorly known. Two mechanisms have been invoked, but not yet explicitly and independently tested: first, the spatial structure of rodent populations (subdivision into several subpopulations) and secondly, the presence of, not only plague-susceptible rodents, but also plague-resistant ones. To gain insight into the role of the above two factors in plague persistence, we analysed a mathematical model of plague propagation. We applied our analyses to the case of Madagascar, where plague has persisted on central highlands since the 1920s and is responsible for about 30% of the human cases worldwide. We found that the long-term persistence of plague can be explained by the presence of any of the above two factors. These results allowed us to propose scenarios to explain the localized presence of plague in the Malagasy highlands, and help understand the persistence of plague in many wild foci.