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Russia's catch-all nuclear rhetoric in its war against Ukraine: A balancing act between deterrence, dissuasion, and compellence strategies
- Source :
- SWP Comment
- Publication Year :
- 2022
- Publisher :
- Berlin: Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik (SWP), 2022.
-
Abstract
- A close reading of Russia's nuclear statements and actions during the first seven months of its war against Ukraine reveals a threefold approach. Moscow is walking a fine line between a well-crafted and successful deterrence strategy to prevent foreign military intervention; a more modest and rather unsuccessful attempt at dissuading foreign aid to Ukraine and sanctions against Russia; and incremental nuclear coercion against Kyiv that spurred Western deterrence messaging in response. This analysis reveals a careful Russian approach, suggesting that cost-benefit calculations are likely to continue to render nuclear escalation unlikely. However, nuclear use cannot be fully discounted, particularly if war-related developments severely imperil the sur­vival of Russia's regime. (author's abstract)
- Subjects :
- deterrence
NATO
Politikwissenschaft
Friedens- und Konfliktforschung, Sicherheitspolitik
Peace and Conflict Research, International Conflicts, Security Policy
Bedrohung
Abschreckung
Russia
military intervention
Kriegsführung
Provokation
war
threat
Political science
invasion of Ukraine
sanctions
nuclear deterrence
dissuasion
United States
provocation
compellence
Nuklearer Schlag
Rhetorik
Bedrohungsvorstellungen (Sicherheitspolitik)
Militärische Bedrohungsanalyse
Entscheidungsprozess bei internationalem Akteur
Gegenmaßnahme
ddc:320
Russland
warfare
Ukraine
nuclear weapons
Krieg
Subjects
Details
- Language :
- English
- Database :
- OpenAIRE
- Journal :
- SWP Comment
- Accession number :
- edsair.doi.dedup.....162bbadca7c516d3a3b03452572514a6