Uncoordinated Coupling Assessment of New Urbanization and Ecological Carrying Capacity in the Yellow River Basin

Under the restriction of the national “double carbon” goal, how to realize the coordination between urbanization and low-carbon development in the Yellow River Basin is a problem worthy of attention. In this paper, a new urbanization and ecological carrying capacity evaluation index system is established to evaluate the new urbanization level and ecological carrying capacity of the Yellow River Basin. On this basis, the uncoordinated coupling level of new urbanization and ecological carrying capacity in the Yellow River Basin is measured by using the improved uncoordinated coupling model, and its temporal and spatial characteristics and internal impact mechanism are analyzed. The study shows that the new urbanization and ecological carrying capacity of the Yellow River Basin has a benign development trend as a whole. Shandong province belongs to the low-level uncoordinated coupling type; Gansu Province and Qinghai Province belong to the running-in uncoordinated type; and Shanxi Province, the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, Shaanxi Province, and the Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region belong to the antagonistic uncoordinated coupling type. The uncoordinated coupling degree between new urbanization and ecological carrying capacity in the Yellow River Basin has a spatial interaction effect. It presents a low-level cluster centered on Shaanxi Province and Shandong Province and a high-level cluster centered on Gansu Province, Qinghai Province, and the Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region. From the perspective of the internal main impact mechanism, water resources have a two-way impact on the development of the two systems of new urbanization and ecological carrying capacity; the number of permanent residents and the level of scientific and technological investment have a one-way impact on the process of new urbanization; and the green coverage rate of built-up areas has a one-way impact on the development of ecological carrying capacity. The main contributions of this paper are as follows. First, the evaluation index system of new urbanization and ecological carrying capacity has been improved in combination with the new development concept. The evaluation of new urbanization by this index system is more in line with the current national requirements for high-quality development. Second, the impact of potential resources and human regulation has been added to the traditional ecological carrying capacity evaluation index system, and the evaluation of ecological carrying capacity by this index system is more in line with reality. Thirdly, taking the time effect into account, an improved uncoordinated coupling method is proposed. Using this method to evaluate the relationship between systems is conducive to bringing the dynamic relationship within the system into the evaluation system, which is more in line with the reality of system changes. Fourth, from the perspective of problem diagnosis, research on the relationship between new urbanization and ecological carrying capacity will help to find the internal mechanism that affects the coordinated development of new urbanization and ecological carrying capacity in the Yellow River Basin. This method is universal for exploring the internal influence mechanism of the relationship between systems.