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Modified susceptible–exposed–infectious–recovered model for assessing the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions during the COVID-19 pandemic in Seoul

Authors :
Seungpil Jung
Jong-Hoon Kim
Seung-Sik Hwang
Junyoung Choi
Woojoo Lee
Source :
Journal of Theoretical Biology. 557:111329
Publication Year :
2023
Publisher :
Elsevier BV, 2023.

Abstract

Susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered (SEIR) models were applied to assess the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) and to study the dynamic behavior of the COVID-19 pandemic. Recently, SEIR models have evolved to address the change of human mobility by some NPIs for predicting the new confirmed cases. However, the models have serious limitations when applied to Seoul. Seoul has two representative quarantine policies, i.e. social distancing and the ban on gatherings. Effects of the two policies need to be reflected in different functional forms in the model because changes in human mobility do not fully reflect the ban on gatherings. Thus we propose a modified SEIR model to assess the effectiveness of social distancing, ban on gatherings and vaccination strategies. The application of the modified SEIR model was illustrated by comparing the model output with real data.

Details

ISSN :
00225193
Volume :
557
Database :
OpenAIRE
Journal :
Journal of Theoretical Biology
Accession number :
edsair.doi.dedup.....0f1cd84588f6e014c065a6ac6030a4b9
Full Text :
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jtbi.2022.111329