Recognition of periAdriatic Seismic Zones Most Prone to Next Major Earthquakes: Insights from a Deterministic Approach

The mitigation of seismic risk in Italy could be considerably helped by the recognition of the seismic zones most prone to next strong earthquake. An attempt at achieving such information has been made by considering the present knowledge about the tectonic setting in the study area and its possible connection with the spatio-temporal distribution of major historical earthquakes. The results of such investigation suggest that at present the probability of major socks is highest in the Northern Apennines.