Predicting atrial fibrillation after cryptogenic stroke via a clinical risk score-a prospective observational study

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE Atrial fibrillation (AF) often remains undiagnosed in cryptogenic stroke (CS), mostly because of limited availability of cardiac long-term rhythm monitoring. There is an unmet need for a pre-selection of CS patients benefitting from such work-up. A clinical risk score was therefore developed for the prediction of AF after CS and its performance was evaluated over 1 year of follow-up. METHODS Our proposed risk score ranges from 0 to 16 points and comprises variables known to be associated with occult AF in CS patients including age, N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide, electrocardiographic and echocardiographic features (supraventricular premature beats, atrial runs, atrial enlargement, left ventricular ejection fraction) and brain imaging markers (multi-territory/prior cortical infarction). All CS patients admitted to our Stroke Unit between March 2018 and August 2019 were prospectively followed for AF detection over 1 year after discharge. RESULTS During the 1-year follow-up, 24 (16%) out of 150 CS patients with AF (detected via electrocardiogram controls, n = 18; loop recorder monitoring, n = 6) were diagnosed. Our predefined AF Risk Score (cutoff ≥4 points; highest Youden's index) had a sensitivity of 92% and a specificity of 67% for 1-year prediction of AF. Notably, only two CS patients with