A Bayesian Estimation of Reliability Measures of Stepwise Exponential Distribution System

This paper presents an analysis method for reliability measures of a system with step changes in failure and repair rates. Both failure and repair time have exponential function of time. Such a system is called a stepwise exponential distribution system. This kind of failure process can take place in various equipments. This paper deals with the system having components in series arrangement. Bayesian statistics is used in defining prior and posterior probability density functions of failure and repair rates. These functions provide information for the estimation of reliability measures: 1) failure and repair rates, 2) mean time to failure, 3) mean time to repair, 4) reliability function and 5) availability. A sample problem is given to illustrate the methodology. The Bayesian estimation of the stepwise exponential distribution model is useful in the planning of equipment predictive maintenance.