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The German East-West Mortality Difference
- Source :
- Demography, Demography, 54(3), 1051-1071. SPRINGER
- Publication Year :
- 2017
-
Abstract
- Before the fall of the Berlin Wall, mortality was considerably higher in the former East Germany than in West Germany. The gap narrowed rapidly after German reunification. The convergence was particularly strong for women, to the point that Eastern women aged 50–69 now have lower mortality despite lower incomes and worse overall living conditions. Prior research has shown that lower smoking rates among East German female cohorts born in the 1940s and 1950s were a major contributor to this crossover. However, after 1990, smoking behavior changed dramatically, with higher smoking intensity observed among women in the eastern part of Germany. We forecast the impact of this changing smoking behavior on East-West mortality differences and find that the higher smoking rates among younger East German cohorts will reverse their contemporary mortality advantage. Mortality forecasting methods that do not account for smoking would, perhaps misleadingly, forecast a growing mortality advantage for East German women. Experience from other countries shows that smoking can be effectively reduced by strict anti-smoking policies. Instead, East Germany is becoming an example warning of the consequences of weakening anti-smoking policies and changing behavioral norms.
- Subjects :
- Adult
Male
Lung Neoplasms
Mortality forecasting
East west
UNITED-STATES MORTALITY
ATTRIBUTABLE MORTALITY
BIRTH COHORTS
Article
Smoking behavior
West germany
German
03 medical and health sciences
INITIATION
0302 clinical medicine
VIEWING SMOKING
030225 pediatrics
HN Social history and conditions. Social problems. Social reform
Germany
ECONOMIC-CONDITIONS
Humans
030212 general & internal medicine
Mortality
LIFE SATISFACTION
Demography
Aged
Models, Statistical
HIGH-INCOME COUNTRIES
Smoking
HEALTH BEHAVIORS
Germany, West
Life satisfaction
Convergence (economics)
Middle Aged
Mortality forecast
3142 Public health care science, environmental and occupational health
language.human_language
Geography
5141 Sociology
language
ECONOMIC CONDITIONS
Female
Germany, East
ADOLESCENT SMOKING
Convergence
Lower mortality
Subjects
Details
- Language :
- English
- ISSN :
- 00703370
- Volume :
- 54
- Issue :
- 3
- Database :
- OpenAIRE
- Journal :
- Demography
- Accession number :
- edsair.doi.dedup.....0b1989acbdb16d31a1040032b40433f8