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Mortality Risk Stratification in Emergency Surgery for Obstructive Colon Cancer—External Validation of International Scores, American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program Surgical Risk Calculator (SRC), and the Dedicated Score of French Surgical Association (AFC/OCC Score)

Authors :
Raul Mihailov
Dorel Firescu
Georgiana Bianca Constantin
Oana Mariana Mihailov
Petre Hoara
Rodica Birla
Traian Patrascu
Eugenia Panaitescu
Source :
International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health; Volume 19; Issue 20; Pages: 13513
Publication Year :
2022
Publisher :
Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute, 2022.

Abstract

Background: The increased rates of postoperative mortality after emergency surgery for obstructive colon cancer (OCC) require the use of risk-stratification scores. The study purpose is to external validate the surgical risk calculator (SRC) and the AFC/OCC score and to create a score for risk stratification. Patients and methods: Overall, 435 patients with emergency surgery for OCC were included in this retrospective study. We used statistical methods suitable for the aimed purpose. Results: Postoperative mortality was 11.72%. SRC performance: strong discrimination (AUC = 0.864) and excellent calibration (11.80% predicted versus 11.72% observed); AFC/OCC score performance: adequate discrimination (AUC = 0.787) and underestimated mortality (6.93% predicted versus 11.72% observed). We identified nine predictors of postoperative mortality: age > 70 years, CHF, ECOG > 2, sepsis, obesity or cachexia, creatinine (aN) or platelets (aN), and proximal tumors (AUC = 0.947). Based on the score, we obtained four risk groups of mortality rate: low risk (0.7%)—0–2 factors, medium risk (12.5%)—3 factors, high risk (40.0%)—4 factors, very high risk (84.4%)—5–6 factors. Conclusions: The two scores were externally validated. The easy identification of predictors and its performance recommend the mortality score of the Clinic County Emergency Hospital of Galați/OCC for clinical use.

Details

Language :
English
ISSN :
16604601
Database :
OpenAIRE
Journal :
International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health; Volume 19; Issue 20; Pages: 13513
Accession number :
edsair.doi.dedup.....0b173e87e4783dbb166d13f4160019da
Full Text :
https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph192013513