Simulation of the Impacts of a Zero-Emission Zone on Freight Delivery Patterns in Rotterdam

As part of a broader vision for emission-free city logistics, the city of Rotterdam plans to introduce a zero-emission zone in combination with urban consolidation centers (UCCs) on the outskirts of the city to generate a shift to zero-emission vehicles. For the design of this zero-emission zone, several research questions arise that require a systematic analysis of the impacts of the transition scenarios on freight demand patterns, the use and market shares of new (zero-emission) vehicles, and the impacts of truck flow and emissions. As a case study, we implemented heterogenous transition scenarios for each logistic segment into the Tactical Freight Simulator from the HARMONY project and analyzed the systemwide impacts. This model is multiagent, empirical, and shipment based and simulates long-term tactical choices (distribution channel choice, shipment size and vehicle type choice, sourcing) and short-term tactical choices (tour formation, delivery times). Results showed that the impact of UCCs is not trivial: we observed a small increase in vehicle kilometers traveled overall of +0.25%, which can be attributed to the rerouting of shipments through the UCCs. Calculations confirmed that emissions reduced dramatically, by 90%, inside the zero-emission zone. At the city scale this corresponds to a reduction of almost 10%, as most freight-related traffic is generated by the port and involves long-haul heavy goods vehicle transport that does not enter the city center. At a regional level, impact reduction was very small. More measures are needed if more ambitious reductions in emissions are to be achieved.