Disruptions and diversions : the demographic consequences of natural disasters in sparsely populated areas

The Eight Ds model (Carson and Carson 2014) explains the unique characteristics of human and economic geography for sparsely populated areas (SPAs) as disconnected, discontinuous, diverse, detailed, dynamic, distant, dependent and delicate. According to the model, SPAs are subject to dramatic changes in demographic characteristics that result from both identifiable black swan events and less apparent tipping points in longer-term processes of demographic change (Carson et al. 2011). The conceptual foundations for this assertion are clear. Populations in SPAs can experience large and long-term impacts on the overall demographic structureas a result of decisions by a relatively small number of people. High levels of migration and mobility cause constant shifts in the demographic profile and prime SPAs to adapt to many different demographic states (Carson and Carson 2014). The Northern Territory of Australia, for example, experienced previously unseen waves of pre-retirement aged migrants in the past decade or so (Martel et al. 2013) as evidence of detailed but important changes to past trends. However, while dramatic demographic changes are conceptually possible and occasionally observable, there have been few attempts to examine the conditions under which such changes are likely to occur or not to occur. This is an important question particularly in relation to black swan events such as natural disasters because effective disaster management policy and planning is at least partially dependent on understanding who is affected and in what ways (Bird et al. 2013). The purpose of this chapter, therefore, is to begin the process of identifying the conditions under which dramatic demographic responses to natural disasters in SPAs might occur. In the process, we introduce two new 'Ds' with which to describe the nature of demographic change. We propose that natural disasters such as cyclones, floods, earthquakes, bushfires, landslides, avalanches and crop failures present the potential to disrupt or to divert demographic development.