Can Artificial Intelligence Predict Glaucomatous Visual Field Progression? A Spatial-Ordinal Convolutional Neural Network Model

PURPOSE To develop an artificial neural network model incorporating both spatial and ordinal approaches to predict glaucomatous visual field (VF) progression. DESIGN Cohort study. Methods From a cohort of primary open-angle glaucoma patients, 9212 eyes of 6047 patients who underwent regular reliable VF examinations for >4 years were included. We constructed all possible spatial-ordinal tensors by stacking 3 consecutive VF tests (VF-blocks) with at least 3 years of follow-up. Trend-based, event-based, and combined criteria were defined to determine the progression. VF-blocks were considered "progressed" if progression occurred within 3 years; the progression was further confirmed after 3 years. We constructed 6 convolutional neural network (NN) models and 2 linear models: regression on global indices and pointwise linear regression (PLR). We compared area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) of each model for the prediction of glaucomatous VF progression. RESULTS Among 43,260 VF-blocks, 4406 (10.2%), 4376 (10.1%), and 2394 (5.5%) VF-blocks were classified as progression-based on trend-based and event-based and combined criteria. For all 3 criteria, the progression group was significantly older and had worse initial MD and VF index (VFI) than the nonprogression group (P < .001 for all). The best-performing NN model had an AUROC of 0.864 with a sensitivity of 0.42 at a specificity of 0.95. In contrast, an AUROC of 0.611 was estimated from a sensitivity of 0.28 at a specificity of 0.84 for the PLR. CONCLUSIONS The NN models incorporating spatial-ordinal characteristics demonstrated significantly better performance than the linear models in the prediction of glaucomatous VF progression.