Dollarization and Stock Relations: Analyzes on Turkey

Güçlü ekonomi ve buna bağlı olarak sağlam parası olmayan ulusal ekonomilerde yabancı paraya yönelimler söz konusu olmaktadır. Türkiye ekonomisinde de özellikle kısmi dolarziasyon olgusu olmakla birlikte, ekonomide kırılganlık unsurlarının artarak krize yönelimiyle birlikte yabancı paraya yönelim artarken, ekonomide istikrar ve güven unsurunu tesis edildiği durumda da dedolarizasyon yaygınlaşmaktadır. Dolarize olma durumunun ölçüm şekilleri olmakla birlikte en yaygın ölçüm şekillerinden biri de toplam mevduatlar içinde yabancı para mevduatlarının payıdır. Bu çerçevede dolarizasyondaki gelişmelerin Türkiye borsası üzerine etkileri zaman serisi analizleri bağlamında inceleme konusu yapılmıştır. 2009:06 ve 2021:11 arası dönem için BIST100 endeksindeki değişim üzerine başta yabancı para mevduatları olmak üzere ulusal para ve yabancı borsa değerlerindeki değişmeler SVAR analizleri ile incelenmiştir. Elde edilen bulgularda kısa dönemde borsa üzerine dolarizasyonun pozitif ve görece zayıf etkilerine dair sonuca ilaveten uzun dönem için de bunun yine pozitif ve daha da güçlü etkiler doğurduğu gözlenmiştir. Türkiye ekonomisinde dolarize olma durumunun ele alınan dönem içerisinde derinleşme eğilimleri olduğu ve bu durumun da borsayı olumlulaştırıcı etkiler yarattığı gözlenmiştir. Ancak borsanın dolarizasyon ile paralellik arz etmesinin sürdürülebilirliği konusunda çekincelerin bulunduğu ileri sürülebilir. There is a tendency towards foreign currency in economies that do not have a strong economy and, accordingly, strong money. Although the phenomenon of partial dollarization is also experienced in the Turkish economy, the tendency towards foreign currency increases with the increase of the fragility elements in the economy and their tendency to crisis. On the other hand, when the stability and confidence factor is established in the economy, dedollarization becomes widespread. While there are various measurement methods of dollarization, one of the most common measurement methods is the share of foreign currency deposits in total deposits. In this context, the effects of the developments in dollarization on the Turkish stock market are examined in the context of time series analysis. For the period between 2009:06 and 2021:11, the changes in the BIST100 index, especially the foreign currency deposits, and the changes in the national currency and foreign stock market values were analyzed by SVAR analysis. In the findings obtained, in addition to the positive and relatively weak effects of dollarization on the stock market in the short term, it was observed that this had positive and even stronger effects in the long term. It has been observed that the dollarization situation in the Turkish economy has a deepening trend during the period under consideration and this situation has positive effects on the stock market. However, it can be argued that there are reservations about the sustainability of the stock market’s parallelism with dollarization.
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