Simple Scoring System to Predict In‐Hospital Mortality After Surgery for Infective Endocarditis

Background Aspecific scoring systems are used to predict the risk of death postsurgery in patients with infective endocarditis ( IE ). The purpose of the present study was both to analyze the risk factors for in‐hospital death, which complicates surgery for IE , and to create a mortality risk score based on the results of this analysis. Methods and Results Outcomes of 361 consecutive patients (mean age, 59.1±15.4 years) who had undergone surgery for IE in 8 European centers of cardiac surgery were recorded prospectively, and a risk factor analysis (multivariable logistic regression) for in‐hospital death was performed. The discriminatory power of a new predictive scoring system was assessed with the receiver operating characteristic curve analysis. Score validation procedures were carried out. Fifty‐six (15.5%) patients died postsurgery. BMI >27 kg/m 2 (odds ratio [ OR ], 1.79; P =0.049), estimated glomerular filtration rate OR , 3.52; P IV ( OR , 2.11; P =0.024), systolic pulmonary artery pressure >55 mm Hg ( OR , 1.78; P =0.032), and critical state ( OR , 2.37; P =0.017) were independent predictors of in‐hospital death. A scoring system was devised to predict in‐hospital death postsurgery for IE (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, 0.780; 95% CI, 0.734–0.822). The score performed better than 5 of 6 scoring systems for in‐hospital death after cardiac surgery that were considered. Conclusions A simple scoring system based on risk factors for in‐hospital death was specifically created to predict mortality risk postsurgery in patients with IE .