Daily estimates of clinical severity of symptoms in bipolar disorder from smartphone-based self-assessments

Currently, the golden standard for assessing the severity of depressive and manic symptoms in patients with bipolar disorder (BD) is clinical evaluations using validated rating scales such as the Hamilton Depression Rating Scale 17-items (HDRS) and the Young Mania Rating Scale (YMRS). Frequent automatic estimation of symptom severity could potentially help support monitoring of illness activity and allow for early treatment intervention between outpatient visits. The present study aimed (1) to assess the feasibility of producing daily estimates of clinical rating scores based on smartphone-based self-assessments of symptoms collected from a group of patients with BD; (2) to demonstrate how these estimates can be utilized to compute individual daily risk of relapse scores. Based on a total of 280 clinical ratings collected from 84 patients with BD along with daily smartphone-based self-assessments, we applied a hierarchical Bayesian modelling approach capable of providing individual estimates while learning characteristics of the patient population. The proposed method was compared to common baseline methods. The model concerning depression severity achieved a mean predicted R2 of 0.57 (SD = 0.10) and RMSE of 3.85 (SD = 0.47) on the HDRS, while the model concerning mania severity achieved a mean predicted R2 of 0.16 (SD = 0.25) and RMSE of 3.68 (SD = 0.54) on the YMRS. In both cases, smartphone-based self-reported mood was the most important predictor variable. The present study shows that daily smartphone-based self-assessments can be utilized to automatically estimate clinical ratings of severity of depression and mania in patients with BD and assist in identifying individuals with high risk of relapse.