A novel method of risk assessment based on improved AHP-Cloud model for freezing pipe fracture

The freezing pipe fracture can cause freezing wall to thaw and even lead to major accidents such as mine flooding easily, which seriously threatens the safety in construction. Therefore, scientific and effective comprehensive risk assessment for freezing pipe fracture is of great significance. In this work, a risk assessment method is put forward based on improved AHP-Cloud model with 19 evaluation indicators. First, the multi-dimension evaluation index system and evaluation model are established, on the basis of in-depth analysis of the risk factors that may lead to accidents. Second, synthesizing the normalization process and the improved analytic hierarchy process (AHP), the evaluation grade cloud and comprehensive evaluation cloud of freezing pipe fracture can be acquired by using the forward cloud generator. Finally, According to the max-subjection principle and the comprehensive evaluation method, we obtain the risk level of freezing pipe fracture. The model is applied to Yangcun Coal Mine. It has been verified that the risk assessment problem of freezing pipe fracture in freezing sinking can be successfully solved by the model we proposed. Above all, the study offers a new research idea for the risk management of freezing pipe fracture in freeze sinking.