Trends in tuberculosis incidence rates in the Region of Sousse (Tunisia) from 1992 to 2016

Introduction In 1993, the World Health Organization declared that tuberculosis is a public health emergency of global concern. All efforts were made in accordance with the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) to reduce the burden of Tuberculosis. The MDG framework built into national priorities and development strategies has, in fact, strengthened epidemiological surveillance and the use of reliable data to make decisions based on objective data. These data are essential for planning, managing the activities of the National Tuberculosis program, monitoring and ongoing evaluation of its performance. In this context, we conducted this study to trace the trend of Tuberculosis incidence rate recorded in the Sousse Region between 1992 and 2016. Methods This is a longitudinal study of the registered data of tuberculosis cases in Sousse between 1992 and 2016. For the trend analysis the software JOINPOINT version 4.5.0.1 was used. This software offers the closest possible regression model of the different points and gives an annual percentage change (APC) with a 95% confidence interval. Results The highest TB incidence rates was recorded in 1993 (85.66 cases per 100 000 inhabitants). Between 1992 and 1997, there was a significant downward trend of TB incidence (APC = -23.2; 95% CI [-28.8, 1]). Between 1997 and 2004 the trend was stable. Between 2004 and 2016, there was a significant upward trend (APC = 8.3; 95% CI: [4.3, 12.4]). Conclusions At the national level, between 1992 and 2002, tuberculosis experienced a fall in incidence rates, as a result of an improvement in the socio-economic level and the organization of tuberculosis control. Since 2004, the trend has been rising. Increased tuberculosis control is advocated to end tuberculosis by 2030 in line with sustainable development goals. Key messages After a significant decrease, the tuberculosis incidence has increased significantly since 2004. The tuberculosis prevention efforts should be intensified to reverse the current trend.