Image masking for crop yield forecasting using AVHRR NDVI time series imagery

One obstacle to successful modeling and prediction of crop yields using remotely sensed imagery is the identification of image masks. Image masking involves restricting an analysis to a subset of a region's pixels rather than using all of the pixels in the scene. Cropland masking, where all sufficiently cropped pixels are included in the mask regardless of crop type, has been shown to generally improve crop yield forecasting ability, but it requires the availability of a land cover map depicting the location of cropland. The authors present an alternative image masking technique, called yield-correlation masking, which can be used for the development and implementation of regional crop yield forecasting models and eliminates the need for a land cover map. The procedure requires an adequate time series of imagery and a corresponding record of the region's crop yields, and involves correlating historical, pixel-level imagery values with historical regional yield values. Imagery used for this study consisted of 1-km, biweekly AVHRR NDVI composites from 1989 to 2000. Using a rigorous evaluation framework involving five performance measures and three typical forecasting opportunities, yield-correlation masking is shown to have comparable performance to cropland masking across eight major U.S. region-crop forecasting scenarios in a 12-year cross-validation study. Our results also suggest that 11 years of time series AVHRR NDVI data may not be enough to estimate reliable linear crop yield models using more than one NDVI-based variable. A robust, but sub-optimal, all-subsets regression modeling procedure is described and used for testing, and historical United States Department of Agriculture crop yield estimates and linear trend estimates are used to gauge model performance.