A herbarium-based method for estimates of temporal frequency changes: mosses in Sweden

A new, resource-efficient, herbarium-based method for estimating temporal frequency changes in species, especially of non-vascular plants and fungi, is presented. It is based on a reference data set for the temporal distribution of general collecting activity for the organism group and geographical area of interest. The reference data set includes the collecting year of 650–1000 randomly selected herbarium specimens. The technique relies on the assumption that the temporal distribution of herbarium collections reflects the collecting activity in a region. The temporal distribution of collections of example species is compared with that of the reference data set to correct for the collecting intensity. Thus, cases that are explained by changes in general collecting frequency can be separated from those where other causes are likely. Species of the latter category need to be examined individually in order to assess whether the actual causes for the detected frequency variations are due to environmental changes or other factors. The present method provides a tool to assess actual increases and decreases of moderately frequent to common taxa, to aid in tracing predicted or unpredicted changes in nature.