Empirical Effort and Schedule Estimation Models for Agile Processes in the US DoD

Estimating the cost and schedule of agile software projects is critical at an early phase to establish baseline budgets and schedules for the selection of competitive bidders. The challenge is that common agile sizing measures such as story points and user stories are not practical for early estimation as these are often reported after contract award in DoD. This study provides a set of effort and schedule estimation models for agile projects using a sizing measure that is available before proposal evaluation based on data from 36 DoD agile projects. The results suggest that initial software requirements, defined as the sum of functions and external interfaces, is an effective sizing measure for early estimation of effort and schedule of agile projects. The models accuracy improves when application domain groups and peak staff are added as inputs.