Genomic Complexity Predicts Resistance to Endocrine Therapy and CDK4/6 Inhibition in Hormone Receptor–Positive (HR+)/HER2-Negative Metastatic Breast Cancer

Purpose: Clinical biomarkers to identify patients unlikely to benefit from CDK4/6 inhibition (CDK4/6i) in combination with endocrine therapy (ET) are lacking. We implemented a comprehensive circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) analysis to identify genomic features for predicting and monitoring treatment resistance. Experimental Design: ctDNA was isolated from 216 plasma samples collected from 51 patients with hormone receptor–positive (HR+)/HER2-negative (HER2−) metastatic breast cancer (MBC) on a phase II trial of palbociclib combined with letrozole or fulvestrant (NCT03007979). Boosted whole-exome sequencing (WES) was performed at baseline and clinical progression to evaluate genomic alterations, mutational signatures, and blood tumor mutational burden (bTMB). Low-pass whole-genome sequencing was performed at baseline and serial timepoints to assess blood copy-number burden (bCNB). Results: High bTMB and bCNB were associated with lack of clinical benefit and significantly shorter progression-free survival (PFS) compared with patients with low bTMB or low bCNB (all P < 0.05). Dominant APOBEC signatures were detected at baseline exclusively in cases with high bTMB (5/13, 38.5%) versus low bTMB (0/37, 0%; P = 0.0006). Alterations in ESR1 were enriched in samples with high bTMB (P = 0.0005). There was a high correlation between bTMB determined by WES and bTMB determined using a 600-gene panel (R = 0.98). During serial monitoring, an increase in bCNB score preceded radiographic progression in 12 of 18 (66.7%) patients. Conclusions: Genomic complexity detected by noninvasive profiling of bTMB and bCNB predicted poor outcomes in patients treated with ET and CDK4/6i and identified early disease progression before imaging. Novel treatment strategies including immunotherapy-based combinations should be investigated in this population.