Plasma lipids and cardiovascular risk: a POSCH report

Quantifying the relationship between changes in lipid variables and clinical endpoints has been difficult. We studied the predictive value of various lipid variables on three endpoints in the Program on the Surgical Control of the Hyperlipidemias (POSCH): overall mortality, coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality, and CHD mortality and confirmed nonfatal myocardial infarction (MI) combined. We measured lipid variables for the annual visits from baseline to 5 years for actual follow-up values, actual and percentage differences between baseline and follow-up values, as well as the parameters comparing baseline only to 5 years for actual differences, percentage differences, and the ratio of baseline to 5 years. The lipid variables included were total cholesterol, low density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol, high density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol, very low density lipoprotein (VLDL) cholesterol, triglycerides, and the LDL cholesterol/HDL cholesterol ratio. The analytic method used was that of Cox regression, with age and sex as secondary covariates, and each lipid or ratio of lipids as the primary (univariate) covariate. As a result, 108 univariate Cox regressions were conducted. The combined findings for the control and the intervention groups are presented. The number of events for the combined group were: overall mortality, 190; CHD mortality, 119; and CHD mortality and confirmed nonfatal MI, 262. The highest hazard ratios were found for the lipid variable of the LDL cholesterol/HDL cholesterol ratio (e.g. 1.196 for a 1-unit increase). Only for the combined endpoint of CHD mortality and confirmed nonfatal MI was there a substantial number of statistically significant relationships (P