Applications of an Aggregate Fertility Model

The aggregate fertility model for the relationship between the proximate determinants and a set of aggregate fertility measures including total fertility rate (TFR) and total marital fertility (TM) can be used to gain insights into a variety of theoretical and practical issues concerning the relationship between fertility and the proximate determinants. In the 1st application estimates are made of the trends in the principal proximate determinants during a "synthetic" transition from the fertility behavior found in contemporary developing countries. The 2nd application describes a decomposition procedure that allows the quantification of the contribution made by each proximate determinant to an observed fertility change between 2 points in time. This procedure is used in the 3rd application to demonstrate how socioeconomic differentials in the proximate determinants can explain unexpected differentials in marital fertility. The 4th application presents an age specific elaboration of the aggregate fertility model. The 5th application presents an analysis of the empirical relationship between contraceptive prevalence levels and different fertility measures. In the 6th application future levels of the total fertility rate are projected based on estimated trends in contraceptive practice. The 7th application includes a brief description of an equation for estimating the levels of contraceptive prevalence and use effectiveness required to reach a prescribed fertility target.