Predicting difficult discharge from surgical wards: a cohort study in an Italian sample

Background Poor discharge planning (DP) can increase costs for European hospitals and worsen patient's experience. Validated scores are used in internal medicine to identify clinical or social difficulties in discharges upon admission but there is a lack of such a tool in the surgical context. This study aims to detect early predictors of difficult discharge. Methods Socio-demographic and clinical data from 15,165 surgical Hospital Discharge Records (SDOs) of the Molinette hospital of Turin, including an additional pre-surgery evaluation of social vulnerabilites from a subgroup of 388 patients, were collected between 2017 and 2019. Outcomes were length of stay (LOS), discharge destination (home, Long Term Care - LTC). Descriptive analysis and multivariable regressions were performed. Results 52.3% of patients were male and the median age was 61 (IQR 22). Median LOS was 6 days (IQR 6) but 15 (IQR 30) for patients discharged to LTC. 18.7% were admitted through the Emergency Department (ED) with a median LOS of 7 (IQR 10). 17.6% of the subsample declared living alone. Linear regression showed associations between discharge to LTC, admission through ED, diagnosis of neoplasia and a longer LOS (Bs 10.76, 5.21 and 2.57 respectively, p Conclusions Surgery LOSs are extremely diversified among patients. This study identified several predictors of difficult discharge, mainly admission through ED, discharge to LTC and diagnosis of neoplasia, suggesting difficulties handling an unexpected event by patients' relatives. Further studies gathering patients' data at admission are required in order to develop a predictive tool useful for European hospitals. Key messages Clinical (cancer) and social (sudden event, no housing solutions) factors can determine a difficult discharge for European patients and should be investigated to anticipate discharge planning. Elective surgery patients seem less prone to social vulnerabilities (e.g. living alone), probably because relatives have time to prepare, while ED patients often need help in the discharge process.