Validity and trends of myocardial infarction incidence and case-fatality estimated from linked administrative databases

Funding Acknowledgements Type of funding sources: Public grant(s) – National budget only. Main funding source(s): CIBERCV of cardiovascular diseases; CIBERESP. OnBehalf REGICOR investigators Background Although myocardial infarction (MI) severity trends are systematically measured with mortality rates, MI incidence trends and the precision of its estimation by linkage of anonymized electronic databases are relatively untested. We validated a linked-data method (LDM) to estimate a population MI incidence and case-fatality, and to analyse the 1990-2016 trends in North-Eastern Spain. Methods LDM consisted of linking MI hospital discharges (n = 4,533,981) and mortality registry data (n = 40,676) for 2008-2016, selecting key MI diagnostic codes. The prospective REGICOR study, including all MI cases in Girona, 1990-2009, was used as the gold standard for validation purposes. Standardized MI cumulated incidence and 28-day case fatality for population aged 35-74 years was calculated, 1990-2016 trends were analysed by linear and joinpoint regression and annual percentage change (APC). Results LDM and REGICOR MI incidence and case-fatality estimates were similar for 2008-09 (Table). LDM MI incidence and case-fatality significantly decreased: APC 1990-2016 [95% CI]) was -1.8 [-2.6;-0.9] in women, and APC 2002-2016 -2.8 [-3.8;-1.8] in men; case-fatality APC 1990-2016 was -4.7% [-5.7;-3.8] in women and APC 1995-2005 -6.5%[-8.5;-4.5] in men. Conclusions LDM in population aged 35-74 reliably estimated MI incidence and case-fatality. MI incidence and case-fatality significantly decreased after 1990. Comparative analysis of REGICOR vs LDM REGICOR 2008-2009 LDM 2008-2009 Estimate 95% CI Estimate 95% CI P-Value Cumulated incidence Men 245.4 228.3; 262.5 239.7 222.5; 256.3 0.626 Women 61.1 52.6; 69.6 58.2 49.9; 66.4 0.626 Overall 28-day case-fatality Men 23.5% 19.7; 27.2 21.3% 17.8; 24.9 0.422 Women 19.3% 6.7; 31.9 17.7% 6.3; 29.1 0.855 In-hospital case-fatality Men 6.9% 4.8; 9.0 5.7% 3.8; 7.6 0.394 Women 5.0% 1.9; 8.2 3.7% 1.0; 6.5 0.540 Pre-hospital case-fatality Men 16.5% 11.8; 21.3 15.6% 11.2; 20.1 0.791 Women 14.2 % 6.6; 21.9 14.0% 6.3; 21.7 0.961 CI Confidence Interval