Estimating carbon emission and baseline for blue carbon ecosystems in indonesia

There is a good chance for Indonesia, the largest archipelagic state in the world, to contribute to climate change mitigation effort by optimizing the ‘regulating and maintenance’ ecosystem service in the form of ‘blue carbon’ function provided by mangrove and seagrass. These so called ‘blue carbon’ ecosystems have 3-5 times capacity of storing and sequestering carbon compared to terrestrial vegetation. This paper attempts to provide the estimation of baseline or Business as Usual (BAU) scenario for blue carbon ecosystems which would be required if formal emission inventory of ‘blue carbon’ ecosystems is to be implemented. The result shows mangrove degradation occurs both during base years of 2000 - 2016 and during the projected emission period of 2017 - 2030. Mangrove conversion to aquaculture pond is the main cause of degradation, contributing up to 72.50 % of the total carbon emission. Blue carbon climate change mitigation by mangrove rehabilitation can only reduce up to 6 % of carbon emission from baseline in 2030. Significant emission reduction of 73,38% from BAU emission in 2030 can only be achieved through integration of mangrove rehabilitation, silvofishery practice and the prevention of mangrove conversion to other land-uses.