A metabolic scope based model of fish response to environmental changes

Eco-physiology studies, performed in laboratory under controlled conditions, provide an essential tool for quantifying the impact of environmental changes on the metabolism and behaviour of individual fish. One way of quantifying such impact is by measuring the Metabolic Scope (MS) of a fish and how it is affected by environmental factors. Laboratory experiments were performed to calculate the empirical mathematical equations describing the variation of the MS of flathead grey mullet, Mugil cephalus , under different environmental conditions (water temperature and water oxygen concentration). The equation obtained was introduced into a coupled hydrodynamic–ecological numerical model able to reproduce the variability of the water temperature, salinity, dissolved oxygen, and of the main dissolved nutrients and chlorophyll- a . The coupled empirical–numerical model was used to reproduce the temporal and spatial variation in MS of a M. cephalus fish population in the Oristano gulf and the Cabras lagoon system (Italy), a typical Mediterranean shallow water environment. Results from numerical simulations show that during the spring and the beginning of summer period, Cabras lagoon provides a higher MS for M. cephalus than the Oristano gulf. During the rest of the year, apart from some transitional phases, the gulf provides more suitable conditions (higher MS) for M. cephalus . The obtained results are in general accordance with fisheries data, showing that M. cephalus catches are highest during the end-July to August period, as they migrate out of the lagoon. This approach, combined with observation on the temporal and spatial distribution of fishes, can allow predictions of fish productivity in non-limiting conditions.