A diet-related microsimulation modelling approach in the context of cardiovascular disease prevention: the ATTICA and GREECS epidemiological studies

Funding Acknowledgements Type of funding sources: Other. Main funding source(s): The ATTICA study is supported by research grants from the Hellenic Cardiology Society [HCS2002] and the Hellenic Atherosclerosis Society [HAS2003]. Background/Introduction: Among all behaviors, nutrition makes the largest contribution to cardiovascular disease (CVD) morbidity across Europe. Purpose: The aim of the present work was to quantify the changes in 10-year CVD onset or recurrence or mortality, in relation to transitioning from low to higher level of adherence to Mediterranean diet. Methods: An individual-level microsimulation was created based on ATTICA (2002-2012, n = 3042 subjects free-of-CVD) and GREECS (2004-2014, n = 2172 patients with acute coronary syndrome (ACS)) studies (in total n = 5214). Eight scenarios regarding the proportion of participants and the size of improvement of level of adherence to Mediterranean diet were compared in terms of relative change in CVD incidence and mortality, as well as, the number of preventable CVD events and deaths. Results: Improving the level of adherence to the Mediterranean diet, even in 10% of the population, a significant relative percentage reduction was observed in the 10-year risk for CVD onset, recurrence and mortality, with the observed reductions being higher among women. In particular, at least 851 first CVD events, 374 recurrent CVD events and 205 CVD deaths per 100,000 of population could be averted or delayed. Additionally, Mediterranean diet clustering revealed that high consumption of fruits, vegetables, whole wheat products and legumes was more important than low consumption of meat and full fat dairy products against CVD. Conclusion: This microsimulation process confirms the added value of Mediterranean diet in primary and secondary CVD prevention having great achievements even with small modifications on a population basis, while challenges the orientation of a Mediterranean-diet intervention giving higher weights to plant-based part.