Models for Energy Technology Assessment

Publisher Summary The optimal timing of new energy sources depends on a number of factors. Most important are the size of fuel resources; the technological feasibility and commercial attractiveness of alternative supply and conservation options; the environmental and social constraints; and the future energy demands. The problem of identifying the possible role for each new energy source depends on the complex interaction of all these factors. Energy system models have been used in the formulation of energy R&D policy at the federal level, providing a broad assessment of the technical and economic characteristics of new technologies and their potential role in the energy system. This chapter provides an overview of the rationale, structure, and use of models for energy technology assessment. The evaluation of an energy technology is complex. Economic assessment compares the impact of a technology's availability on the nation's economic growth to the cost of its development. Model applications are easy to identify. However, assessing their impact on policy decisions is much more difficult. There is uncertainty associated with the value of every input parameter to any quantitative planning model. The chapter illustrates the flow of information among energy producers, non-energy producers, and consumers. It describes the state of the art of energy technology assessment modeling and the major contributions that energy models can make toward improving understanding of energy issues.