A Few Lessons for the Future

This concluding chapter reiterates three main themes emphasized in the book. The first is that institutional and political reforms seldom reduce the cost of capital quickly; other types of events, especially wars and episodes of politically-motivated violence, have a far more immediate and pronounced impact on the cost of borrowing. The second theme is that country-specific developments played a more important role in determining spreads in 1870-1913 than they did in the 1990s, as reflected in the high co-movement of bond spreads today. The third theme is that the existence of institutions aimed at resolving debt crises may have contributed to the continuous expansion of the international bond market in the 19th century, but creditor coordination is likely to be less effective today.