Public Emergency Diffusion in Three Gorges Dam Region Based on SD Simulation — Fire and Explosion of the Ship with Dangerous Good

Through field investigation, this paper establishes an emergency system dynamic model of FE of ship with DG (FESDG) in Three Gorges Dam Region (TGDR) and applies SD model to the emulate simulation of its diffusion. The results indicate that after the FE, 7 categories of events such as ship sinking, DG leaking, water pollution, etc. will occur simultaneously with the emergency source. In the following 15 hours, 8 categories of secondary events (SEs) such as ship detention, moving of ship underwater, channel embargo, etc. will occur at different moments and with divergent evolutionary curves. Research panel finds that inherent structure of SEs will constitute one of the main reasons causing different critical points of event mutation, and all SEs have a "window period" (WP) for emergency handling (EH). Finally this paper put forwards 3 EH strategies: building emergency synergistic handling system of multi-subjects, confirming scientific EH and responsive measures, establishing dynamic flexible scheme of EH.