A Review of Research and Practice on the Theory and Technology of Reservoir Dam Risk Assessment

A current trend is to implement dam risk management. Dam risk analysis is the premise of dam risk management. Methods such as PRA, FMEA/FMECA, FTA, ETA, and group dam risk analysis have been proposed in studies at home and abroad. In practice, it is found that dam breaks or accidents occur even though the dam risk calculated by the existing methods meets the acceptable risk standard, and that many occurred accidents are at variance with dam risk analysis. This indicates that the existing methods have systematic defects, and the dam risk calculated based on such methods is only a part of the actual risk. This paper reviews the dam risk analysis theory and technical research and practice, discusses and analyzes the applicability and existing defects of the dam risk analysis theory, and proposes the future development direction of the dam risk analysis theory. It is concluded that the current dam risk assessment theories are tantamount to the traditional safety factor method coupled with probability analysis. The correlation among influencing factors of dam system risk, as well as the uncertainties of the said factors are not fully considered. Difficulties and opportunities coexist in China to link the existing dam safety standard system with the dam risk management system. The next step is to use system theory to carry out theoretical research on dam operation risk assessment, strengthen the connection between dam risk theory and management status, and formulate risk prevention regulations and technical standards.