TEMPER AS A MODEL OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS: AN EVALUATION FOR THE JOINT WAR GAMES AGENCY DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE

An evaluation is presented of the TEMPER model as a representation of, and a tool for, the analysis of international relations. The major assumptions implicit in the model were examined and assessed to determine their degree of scientific validation, relevance to problems of crisis management, and relevance to decisions of the U.S. and the Department of Defense. Equations and computer routines dealing with political aspects of the model were analyzed. Recommendations were made to eliminate, modify or combine routines, correct errors and ambiguities, and simplify propositions embedded in the model. Strengths and novel features of the TEMPER design were also identified. The most radical recommendation in this report is to transform TEMPER into a family of partial models for man-machine interaction in the analysis of international crisis. Time-sharing now makes this practicable. TEMPER is potentially a powerful device for the study of international relations.