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Short communication: A model to predict flood loss in mountain areas
- Source :
- Environmental Modelling & Software. 117:176-180
- Publication Year :
- 2019
- Publisher :
- Elsevier BV, 2019.
-
Abstract
- Because effects of climate change and an increase in elements at risk, mountain hazard loss increased throughout Europe. Yet, factors influencing loss, i.e. vulnerability, have gained less attention to date. Vulnerability is defined as the degree of loss resulting from the hazard impact on buildings. Recent studies have focused on evaluating vulnerability to dynamic flooding using proxies from case studies and based on empirical ex-post approaches. However, the transferability to other case studies and, therefore, the ability of such models to actually predict future losses is limited. To overcome this gap, we present a beta model based on loss data from the European Alps, which clearly shows that a single vulnerability function is sufficient to predict losses resulting from different types of torrential hazards and to provide probabilities of destruction under specific scenarios. As a result, the curves are transferable and may significantly increase the predictive power of risk analyses.
- Subjects :
- 021110 strategic, defence & security studies
Environmental Engineering
010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences
business.industry
Ecological Modeling
Flooding (psychology)
Environmental resource management
Transferability
0211 other engineering and technologies
Vulnerability
02 engineering and technology
01 natural sciences
Hazard
Flood loss
Effects of global warming
Predictive power
Environmental science
business
Software
0105 earth and related environmental sciences
Subjects
Details
- ISSN :
- 13648152
- Volume :
- 117
- Database :
- OpenAIRE
- Journal :
- Environmental Modelling & Software
- Accession number :
- edsair.doi...........ccae12831430d80525cd279ad6128b92