ADAPTIVE AND MONOTONE SPLINE ESTIMATION OF THE CROSS-SECTIONAL TERM STRUCTURE

A number of numerical methods based on a piecewise polynomial approximation have been proposed for the estimation of the term structure of interest rates. Some drawbacks have been pointed out, such as a possible non monotonic estimated discount function and a highly fluctuating spot and forward rates. In order to overcome these kind of problems, we study the feasibility of an adaptive regression spline technique which use a monotone basis together with two alternative knot location procedures: a deterministic greedy algorithm and its randomized version in a simulated annealing framework. The features of the proposed method are tested on a set of data.