Hazard assessment of potentially dangerous bodies within a cliff based on the Fuzzy-AHP method: a case study of the Mogao Grottoes, China

The Mogao Grottoes are among the most famous sites on the World Heritage list. Several large-scale preservation projects were implemented in 1962, 1982, and 2008, respectively, to improve their preservation conditions. According to field investigation and assessment in recent years, the cliff is stable on the whole because of the reinforcement projects. Among them, there are still 42 potentially dangerous bodies, which may not be stable in some conditions. For the purpose of building the monitoring and early warning system and the long-term preventive preservation of the Mogao Grottoes, an innovative analytical method based on the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Fuzzy-AHP was applied to assess the hazard of potentially dangerous bodies within the cliff. Firstly, the hazard was classified into six groups: very high, high, moderate, low, very low, and no hazard, in this study. Secondly, the AHP method was applied to calculate the impact index of each causative factor, and then the hazard assessment of dangerous bodies was made based on statistical analysis. Finally, the Fuzzy-AHP method was applied to calculate the correlation of each factor and determine the comprehensive hazard class. The results indicate that Fuzzy-AHP seems to be more accurate than AHP in hazard assessment. Meanwhile, there is a very high risk body that can threaten 10 caves, three high risk bodies that can threaten 13 caves, and 15 moderate risk bodies can threaten 69 caves in total, while the remaining bodies are defined as low or very low grades. Overall, the results of this study provide much data and a theoretical model in the construction of a monitoring and early warning system currently. Furthermore, the new numerical simulation method also holds the potential application to assess the hazards of other types of heritage sites.