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Impact of climate change on vulnerability of forests and ecosystem service supply in Western Rhodopes Mountains
- Source :
- Regional Environmental Change. 17:79-91
- Publication Year :
- 2015
- Publisher :
- Springer Science and Business Media LLC, 2015.
-
Abstract
- The vulnerability of forest ecosystem services to climate change is expected to depend on landscape characteristic and management history, but may also be influenced by the proximity to the southern range limit of constituent tree species. In the Western Rhodopes in South Bulgaria, Norway spruce is an important commercial species, but is approaching its current southern limit. Using climate sensitive forest models, we projected the impact of climate change on timber production, carbon storage, biodiversity and soil retention in two representative landscapes in the Western Rhodopes; a lower elevation landscape (1000–1450 m a.s.l) dominated by mixed species forests, and a higher elevation landscape (1550–2100 m a.s.l.) currently dominated by spruce. In both landscapes climate change is projected to induce a shift in forest composition, with drought-sensitive species, such as Norway spruce, being replaced by more drought-tolerant species such as Scots pine and black pine at lower elevations. In the higher elevation landscape a reduction in spruce growth is projected, particularly under the more severe climate change scenarios. Under most climate scenarios a reduction in growing stock is projected to occur, but under some scenarios a moderate increase in higher elevation stands (>1500 m a.s.l.) is expected. Climate change is projected to negatively influence carbon storage potential across landscapes with the magnitude depending on the severity of the climate change scenario. The impact of climate change on forest diversity and habitat availability is projected to differ considerably between the two landscapes, with diversity and habitat quality generally increasing at higher elevations, and being reduced at lower elevations. Our results suggest that if currently management practices are maintained the sensitivity of forests and forest ecosystem services in the Western Rhodopes to climate change will differ between low and higher elevation sites and will depend strongly on current forest composition.
- Subjects :
- 0106 biological sciences
Global and Planetary Change
010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences
biology
Ecology
Sustainable forest management
Scots pine
Biodiversity
Climate change
biology.organism_classification
010603 evolutionary biology
01 natural sciences
Forest restoration
Ecosystem services
Forest ecology
Climate change scenario
Environmental science
0105 earth and related environmental sciences
Subjects
Details
- ISSN :
- 1436378X and 14363798
- Volume :
- 17
- Database :
- OpenAIRE
- Journal :
- Regional Environmental Change
- Accession number :
- edsair.doi...........c87511e9d3197411e12b02aa3093cf4c