Predicting for Cardiac Events Following Allogeneic Hematopoietic Stem Cell Transplantation in Adults

Introduction Cardiovascular (CV) complications occur after hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HCT). Risk factors for events are unclear making it difficult to determine optimal pre-transplant screening. Solid organ transplants programs calculate pre-transplant risk to determine indication for further cardiac testing. Based on this, we investigated whether several commonly used CV risk calculators predicted for CV events after HCT. Methods This was a prospective case control study at a single academic institution. CV risk was estimated using the Framingham General CVD Risk Score (2008), ACC/AHA Pooled Cohort Hard CVD Risk (ASCVD; 2013) calculator, and JBS3 QRISK Lifetime calculator. Results Forty-eight patients transplanted between 2012 and 2016 were analyzed. 27 (56%) were female. Ages ranged from 53-74 with a median of 64. Diseases transplanted were: AML (38%), MDS (31%), Non-Hodgkin's lymphoma (15%), and others 47% had high risk for CVD (score>2) by Framingham score. 67% had high risk by ASCVD calculator (10 year risk >7.5%). 70% had high risk by QRISK Lifetime calculator. 9%were low risk by Framingham score, but high risk by QRISK Lifetime calculator. Cardiac events evaluated included atherosclerotic events (myocardial infarction and stroke), atrial fibrillation (a-fib), and others (other arrhythmia, CHF, drop in LVEF, and cardiac arrest). 40% had any cardiac event. 15% had an atherosclerotic event (MI or CVA). 21% had a-fib. Framingham Risk, ASCVD and QRISK calculators did not predict for either atherosclerotic events or any cardiac events after HCT [Table 1]. Risk factors for a-fib specifically, were also evaluated: history of MI, diastolic or systolic dysfunction, CHF, valvular disease, tobacco use, diabetes, and hypertension. Only CHF was a predictor for a-fib (p=0.08). Conclusion CVD risk calculators commonly used in the general population and by solid organ transplant programs did not predict for CV events post-HCT here. However, this analysis was limited by small study size. Study in a larger population is being planned to allow incorporation of transplant related variables to develop a HCT-specific multivariate risk calculator to accurately predict post-HCT CV events.