Risk Assessment and Treatment Planning for Energy-flexible Production Systems Using an Additional Cost Model

As a result of the energy transition in Germany, companies can increasingly benefit from adjusting electricity consumption to fluctuating electricity prices. Through energy-oriented production planning, production processes are scheduled depending on price forecasts. The resulting electricity demand is procured with the obligation to consume the electricity within certain tolerances. The procurement entails risks, as faults or other unexpected events can lead to deviations in electricity consumption. These can be associated with high penalty costs, if contractual tolerances or the peak load are violated. To take a holistic view on the additional costs, the effects on production goals must also be considered. This paper shows the assessment of production risks and delivers an approach for suitable preventive or reactive measures by changing the production plan. The approach was applied on a use case of a foundry with exemplary risks, with the result of minimized fault-related additional costs through the selection of a cost-optimal measure.