Sociodemographic and Health Profiles of the Oldest Old In China

THE NUMBER OF oldest old persons in China, defined here as aged 80 and older, is calculated by the United Nations to climb from about 11.5 million in the year 2000 to 27 million in 2020, 39 million in 2030, 64 million in 2040, and 99 million in 2050. 1 Under the UN’s medium fertility assumption, 2 the percent aged 65 and older is expected to increase from 6.9 in 2000 to 15.7 in 2030 and 22.7 in 2050, while the share of the oldest old which in 2000 is 13 percent of the elderly population will be some 30 percent in 2050. The main reason the number of oldest old will climb so quickly after 2030 is that China’s “baby boomers,” who were born in the 1950s and 1960s, will fall into the category of “oldest old” at that time. During 2000‐50 the population of the oldest old will grow faster than any other age group in China. This phenomenon is not limited to China. The average annual rates of increase of oldest old persons between 2000 and 2050 are expected to be around 4.3 percent in China, India, and Mexico and 2.2‐2.8 percent in Canada, Japan, the United States, Germany, and France (UN 2001b). The rate of increase of the Chinese oldest old subpopulation is much faster (4.4 percent vs. 2.7 percent) than that of the entire elderly population aged 65 and older. The oldest old are much more likely to need help in daily living than the younger elderly. The oldest old consume medical care and other services and benefits of government and private transfers far out of proportion to their numbers. As evidenced later in this article, the proportion of individuals leading active daily lives declines and the disability rate increases dramatically with age among the Chinese oldest old. Torrey (1992: 382) estimated that in the United States, the Medicare costs of those aged 80 and older are 77, 60, and 36 percent higher than those of the younger elderly aged 65‐69, 70‐74, and