Implications of flood disturbance for conservation and management of giant panda habitat in human-modified landscapes

As certain extreme weather events are becoming frequent and intense, conservationists must identify areas across species' ranges recurrently affected, especially with regard to threatened species. Focusing on the giant panda (Ailuropoda melanoleuca) and historical flood frequency distribution, we determined overlaps between panda distribution affected by floods and nature reserves. We also examined the correspondence between areas subject to high flood exposure densities, areas with high panda habitat use, and areas that exhibit high human density. Of the 67 reserves established for giant panda conservation 7 included areas with the highest flood exposure densities while having a mean exposure ranging between 20 and 75%. In Sichuan province up to 32% of areas of high habitat use were subject to low flood density, and 10% overlapped with areas subject to high flood density. We also found that 40% of the total area with high human density was subject to a high flood density. Our findings indicate that high frequency of flooding is affecting areas of nature reserves where people are rather than areas which pandas are using more intensively. In areas occupied by pandas, strategies should remain focus on mitigating habitat degradation and fragmentation caused by human activities that can also reduce habitat resilience to floods. Management aimed at reducing vulnerability and enhancing resilience in flood-prone areas is warranted if we are to prevent negative indirect impacts on panda habitat driven by human responses to increasingly frequent and intense extreme weather events in the coming decades.