Probable evidence for periodicities in global seismic energy release

A complete data set of globally distributed shallow (h ≤, 60 Km) earthquakes have been used for first time to test the possible existence of periodicities in the seismic energy release. Only main shocks of magnitude,M ≥ 7.0 were considered, which occurred in the whole Earth during 1898–1985. These magnitudes are converted in seismic energy, which is released during the occurrence of earthquakes, through Bath's formula. The detection of such kind of periodicities is important in seismology, because these patterns may lead to the prediction of large earthquakes. Statistical techniques, such as Maximum Entropy (ME), and two Fourier approaches, the Fast Fourier Transform (FFT) and Power Spectrum (PS) of truncated subrecords of the whole time series have been applied to examine the possible existence of such periodicities in seismic energy release. Furthermore, the even-spacing technique is used to validate our results and a type-curve has been constructed for the data set. The results exhibit a network of periodicities with predominant periods at 3(±0.5), 4.5, 6.5, 8–9, 14–20, and 31–34 years. Some periods were occasionally interrupted. The latter implies that our time-series is not stationary, in that, the spectral peaks drift when the data are viewed through different time windows. The fact that the signal is weak and embedded in less accurate older data could contribute to this effect. The question of stability/validity of the apparently cyclic behaviour of the annual global seismic energy release, is one which requires further investigation.